We need a plan for the homeless in LA, yet we still do not have one…

2020 Homelessness in Los Angeles: We still don’t have a plan and here’s why:

The homeless numbers for 2020 came out prior to the Covid-19 pandemic wave and the count reflected a double-digit increase for the second consecutive year. Prior to Covid-19, it was estimated to grow another 20% for 2021. A count which now will not happen for 2021!!! Because of the current surge in unemployment and future evictions, it will undoubtedly increase much more than 20%. Though predicting how much of an increase is difficult.

LA County just announced that the Federal Government granted LA permission to call off the homeless count for 2021 due to safety reasons. Now, more than ever this city, state, and country needs to be held accountable. Failing to conduct the count is giving LA a one-year pass and doing a great disservice to so many. Here are four (4) additional primary factors affecting LA’s ability to execute on Mayor Garcetti’s 2015 promise to eliminate homelessness in LA:

1. Covid-19 impact — There is no way at this time to quantify this impact. The numbers are expected to rise as millions still remain unemployed. Rent evictions have been delayed and LA County and the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority has extended the ‘Project Room Key’ initiative that provides temporary housing for the homeless at hotels. This is a short-term solution and LAHSA is already overwhelmed and doing their best.
2. Earlier in the year LA County granted the release of 4,276 inmates which represented 25% of the county inmate population. LA County sheriff Alex Villanueva expressed concern about the surge in crime at the time and his concern is warranted.
3. Governor Newsom just recently vetoed Senate Bill (SB) 369, which would have created a commission to study prisoner reentry amid Covid-19. Many criminals that enter into county and state correctional facilities were homeless before incarceration.
4. LA Mayor Eric Garcetti’s has an abysmal track record on reducing the homeless numbers. In 2016 he promised 10,000 new units in 10 years. Only one new building has been completed this year for a total of 60 units. Currently, only 20 buildings are under construction.

While the arrival of new vaccines will provide some hope for some, financially it will continue to be an uphill battle for many until a new Covid-19 relief package gets approved and introduced. I believe we will continue to see spikes in the at risk populations, which is defined as a family of four (4) making less than $30k per year that. Without a decent count it will be difficult to break down who’s being affected and how to budget and spend the dollars.

What will these prisoners do now that they have been given early release without any kind of plan? They have little access to education, face limited job opportunities, lack of affordable housing and many are ineligible for public benefits, public housing and student loans. A recent article noted that approximately 3 in 5 U.S. prisoners are drug dependent. With old friends, old ways and habits to tempt them over 50% become ‘reoffenders’ and over 50,000 per year in the U.S. enter homeless shelters after leaving. This recent article Formerly Incarcerated People Are Nearly 10 Times More Likely to be Homeless | discusses the likelihood of former inmates returning to the streets. While Governor Newsom and other state politicians have complained about overcrowded facilities, they continue to release inmates early without a study and a plan. Newsom is setting these individuals free to an almost certain life of addiction, mental health issues, homelessness, suicide and crime.

As I mentioned in my previous blog Homelessness in LA was up before Covid, Garcetti’s plan is failing. The number do not lie here. In 2016, he was awarded over $1 billion in funding for Proposition HHH. It is now estimated that most of this money will go to ‘soft costs’ also referred to impact fees which are a lucrative source of income for county and state government in California. One permanent supportive housing building for a total of 60 units has been built. The average cost is $540k per unit. Garcetti’s plan has clearly not been working and now we will wait to hear more about his temporary plans along with a narrative that incorporates a far too many excuses. He will most likely hang his hat on the covid-19 pandemic.

Only 118 buildings have been approved for construction under his plan. New York City is not doing much better with Mayor de Blasio’s plan and promise to build 300,000 units by 2026. Today, there have been 4,500 units built in NYC. In my opinion, Garcetti either truly does not care about people or he and his staff are completely incompetent. Maybe it is both but providing temporary shelters through hotels and other limited shelters is simply not a plan as the numbers were up pre Covid-19. We must have affordable, permanent supportive housing (PSH) solutions to permanently reduce these numbers. Budget dollars for this PSH model represent less than 20% of all LA homeless funding. Measure H currently allocates $77.3 million for permanent supportive housing out of the additional $460 million that was approved in 2019.

We will have to wait for these answers while most of these inmates go back to the street. In other words, there is no plan from Newsom for these early releases and there will likely be more early releases granted. We will have to wait at least a year for a homeless count which many, including me, debate the accuracy of, as there is not a clear definition for homelessness, along with the mobility of the population and the cyclical nature of individual homelessness.

So, it will be at least another year before we are able to truly assess the grave magnitude of this situation as the Feds gave LA a one-year pass and still as of the date of this blog have not passed another emergency stimulus assistance package for this country. The House and the Senate are now responsible for sending many people to the streets and for some, an almost certain death. If the Federal eviction moratorium is released, then millions more could be on the streets.

Many small businesses give these individuals opportunities for employment and now these businesses are suffering as well, and many are expected to close their operations permanently. Of the top urban areas with the biggest homeless populations, California had 3 of the top 5 in the country. LA is number two behind New York. The current report card and outlook for Los Angeles and California is an ‘F’ showing little promise going forward. The numbers were up pre Covid-19 and are getting worse. This city, state and country deserves so much better.

Steve